租賃業金融股的選擇:中租與裕融

fishgnik wrote:
一般營收若有成長,他(恕刪)
53億2仟8。 11月營收歷史新高
11月營收真棒
這波回跌加碼2張
繼續看下去
最近一直看到中國企業債務危機的新聞,這個對中租會有影響嗎? 還是從它的財報中可以看的出來? 有人有研究這個,可以分享一下.


中國麻煩大了!紐時:中企債務危機連環爆金額驚人
[新頭殼newtalk] 中國陷入錢坑!根據《紐約時報》報導,除了地方政府面臨債務問題,中國企業界債務危機更是連環爆,如今無法償債的中企有一長串,且債務累積如山,光是今年已出現近200億美元的違約,麻煩可能會越來越多,顯示全球第2大經濟體的中國,正感受到30年來最嚴重的經濟放緩壓力。

《紐約時報》報導指出,與中國整體經濟相比,200億美元的違約數字很小,但造成的損害正在上升,未來2年,中國企業將有約1.4兆美元的國內債券,以及向外國機構借貸的2000多億美元到期。
報導說,中國許多的地方政府自身難保,缺乏幫助本地龍頭企業的資金,官方正面臨一項艱巨任務,那就是弄清楚「能允許哪些公司倒閉」?藉此「教訓它們不要過度借貸」。

由天津市政府經營的天津物產集團,以及最大股東為北京大學的北大方正集團,11月下旬以來接連出現債務危機。其中,天津物產集團因市政府自身也有債務問題無力再支持,因而積欠外國銀行12.5億美元的債務,成為20年來首家未能按時向外國投資者償債的中國國有企業。

至於北大方正集團,12月初也未能按期償付2.84億美元的債券。由於大股東是北京大學金融部門,此事在中國已引起廣泛關注;集團方面更坦承資金流動正在緊縮,但也在「積極尋求融資」以償債。

報導更直指,中國金融體系在巨額借貸狂潮的重壓下舉步維艱,債券市場的動盪只是面臨的眾多震盪之一。雖然中國牢牢控制著金融體系,但若債券違約續增,讓法人及銀行警惕,導致企業無法再獲得維持運營所需的現金,「麻煩可能會越來越多」。

國際評級機構惠譽表示,中國2019年前11個月的民企債券違約率達4.9%,創下新高,且由於經濟成長疲軟,預計明年民企債務違約率也將維持高點。
fishgnik wrote:
最近一直看到中國企業...(恕刪)

通常看到新聞會有相關聯想,可以理解。若要對公司的經營模式有更深信心,多看年報、季報、法說會、長期觀察,或直接打電話去公司,時間久了在心裡就有一定的評價。有時候質化比量化的資料重要,而新聞都是聳動的居多,時間過了就過了。信者不疑、疑者不信,在這裡有很多押身家的大咖,總不能每次看到這種新聞就....
中租的強項跟護城河就是這些倒帳新聞出來對中租幾乎沒影響
他們控制風險的能力太強了
jiunghsiun640 wrote:
53億2仟8。 11...(恕刪)
別緊張,請看我之前的po文 ,該是加碼的時候了
pizzahum716 wrote:
別緊張,請看我之前的(恕刪)
港商麥格理倒貨中 賣壓力竭畤找買點
這篇報導證實中租的說詞真的沒錯,即使PBOC在八月底開始降LPR,大陸一般銀行借貸利率仍是不動如山
看來這真的是中租趁機擴大大陸生意的好時機


In Depth: Why Easing Monetary Policy Is Not Enough
https://is.gd/YVseOh

‘Big risks’

From the banks’ perspective, there is a lack of suitable projects that meet their criteria and can generate enough cash to meet their repayment obligations, and as the economy slows, many companies are borrowing money just to keep their businesses going rather than to expand. There is also concern that boosting lending to more risky smaller companies could lead to higher nonperforming loans (NPLs) which would hurt banks’ performance under the PBOC’s quarterly Macro-Prudential Assessment (MPA), a framework that evaluates banks across a range of criteria such as bad debts, exposure to credit risk and capital adequacy.

Lending to small companies “carries big risks, and it’s really not easy to do,” a manager in the credit department of a bank based in Shandong province said. “We want to lend, but we are in a desert. There are very few high-quality companies looking for loans that meet our lending criteria. Other companies are actively deleveraging and just don’t want to borrow.”

[.....]

Lending targets

Since April 2018, the PBOC has lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRR) seven times, the most recent being a phased reduction announced in September. These cuts released funds totalling more than 5 trillion yuan for lending, with some specifically targeted at helping smaller companies, a segment of the economy that has traditionally found it hard to get funding.

Banks were set targets for boosting lending to small and midsized enterprises (SMEs) — this year the goal was for a 30% increase for the five largest state-owned banks and a 1 percentage point decline (link in Chinese) in average borrowing costs for SMEs.

In October 2018 the central bank unveiled what Governor Yi Gang described as a “three arrows” strategy to tackle the financing difficulties of private companies, targeting bank loans, debt and equity financing. This included lowering the interest rate on loans small banks get from the central bank, known as the relending rate, and raising relending and rediscount quotas, to encourage more credit to flow to private companies.

PBOC data show that annual growth in outstanding medium- and long-term (MLT) loans to companies has slowed from 15.9% in 2017 to 11.8% in 2018. In the first 10 months of 2019, the growth rate slowed to 10% from the end of 2018. New MLT loans to companies in the first 10 months of 2019 actually fell from the year earlier period to 5.06 trillion yuan from 5.07 trillion.

But bank lending rates remained stubbornly high, even though some economists said the surge in liquidity should have resulted in lower rates.

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